01 07 2018 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
12 04 2017 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
Bond market term premium and wolves of Yellowstone
10 17 2017 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
How we learned to stop worrying and love the “fake markets”
09 20 2017 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
QE’s distributional effects a rising political liability
04 18 2017 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
Persistent low volatility threatens active fund managers
02 17 2017 | by Victor Xing | Economics
Looming risks through the prism of bifurcated housing market
01 11 2017 | by Victor Xing | Economics
Financial risk contagion: China’s capital outflow
12 22 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
November PCE: dollar strength weighed on goods inflation
12 14 2016 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
A less-hawkish interpretation of the December FOMC
12 02 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
November Payrolls and Governor Powell on risk management
10 07 2015 | by Victor Xing | Economics
Has real income been gradually rising in the U.S.?
Real income growth
Real income has been gradually rising in the U.S. for the top 5% and top quintile, but the real income growth rate for the 2nd quintile and below has been disappointingly soft (growing, but at 0.45% annualized real growth rate).
Source: Doug Short
There are several factors behind the sluggish wage growth (for all quintiles over the past decade)
Asset price inflation and its asymmetrical effects on real wage growth
At the height of the, Federal Reserve began its extraordinary monetary policy easing to combat the clear and present danger of , seen in the form of rapid private sector deleveraging, by lowering its rates close to zero and started 3 rounds of .
However, rates at zero lower bound is a form of. Non-asset holders were punished – their bank deposits now generate little or no income, and they were forced to move into riskier assets, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or “anything that offers some yield and is not bolted down to the floor” (please see ). This led to asset price inflation.
In the following chart, you will see a steadily recovery in house prices, as well as a corresponding decline in the affordability index. The red line is OER, or Owners’ Equivalent Rent (a proxy for rental cost), accounting for 24% of the Consumer Price Index. This component is now at 3% YoY, and it has been eating away household real income.
OER is not an issue for home owners, as it is positively correlated with house price appreciation (HPA). It does, however, have a vicious impact on lower income earners who cannot afford to buy a house – they become perceptual renters. The more renters, the higher the rental cost.
In short, asset price inflation is disadvantageous to those without asset (young workers, low income workers, retirees relying on low risk fixed income products), and it benefits asset holders (who tend to be more affluent)
Job polarization and the hollowing out of the middle class
The U.S. labor market is undergoing structural changes. New York Fed researchers highlighted that. This is contributing to the growing income gap, and further weigh on real wages of lower income earners (who will likely be paying higher rents, in the form of higher OER).
In conclusion, aggregate real income has been gradually rising, but it is rising much more slowly for low income workers.
Next article10 05 2015 | by Victor Xing | Economics