10 17 2017 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
09 20 2017 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
QE’s distributional effects a political liability
04 18 2017 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
Persistent low volatility threatens active fund managers
02 17 2017 | by Victor Xing | Economics
Looming risks through the prism of bifurcated housing market
01 11 2017 | by Victor Xing | Economics
Financial risk contagion: China’s capital outflow
12 22 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
November PCE: dollar strength weighed on goods inflation
12 14 2016 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
A less-hawkish interpretation of the December FOMC
12 02 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
November Payrolls and Governor Powell on risk management
11 15 2016 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
November FOMC minutes and debates behind guidance change
11 04 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
October Payrolls: decent data with stronger wage growth
11 26 2015 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
What are ways to establish interest rates exposure?
Investors can indeed establish interest rates exposure via multiple instruments, such as interest rate swap, Treasury futures, or nominal (cash) Treasury notes and bonds. They each come with advantages and disadvantages.
Scenario: an institution plans to establish a 90,000 DV01 risk exposure in the dollar denominated 10 year interest rates sector (basically the portfolio would gain or lose $90,000 for every one basis point, or 0.01%, change in the 10 year sector) .
Establish interest rates exposure via Treasury futures
Currently there is no true 10 year Treasury futures. TY futures are a little over 7 years in duration, and US futures are a little over 21 years. CME will launch its Ultra 10-year futures (TN) in January 2016 to fill the gap, but until then, investors will have to use a 7+ year futures instrument as a proxy to establish 10 year interest rate exposure – the slippage is real, as 7 and 10 years are considered two separate tenors (with different sensitivity toward central bank policy and risk sentiment). Nevertheless, the institution can buy 1,154 TY contracts to establish approximately 90,000 DV01 in the 7 year sector as a proxy for 10 year risk.
Pros: balance sheet friendly, highly liquid, supports long and short positions
Cons: have to roll futures positions, cannot precisely target duration exposure as not all major tenors are covered by futures contracts. Does not support forward positions
Ultra 10 – it may be the greatest thing since sliced bread, but it is not here yet
The institution needs to buy $101 million 10 year on-the-run Treasury notes. This means the institution needs to have room in its balance sheet to warehouse the bonds (balance sheet constraint)
Pros: highly liquid, major tenors are well represented in cash bonds
Cons: balance sheet intensive (ties up cash), does not support outright short positions (some part of the curve are relatively less liquid), does not support forward positions
Interest rate swaps
The institution can receive $99 million in 10 year swaps with an investment bank’s trading desk, which will be cleared through either LCH or CME.
Pros: highly liquid, all tenors (including forward rates) are represented. Balance sheet friendly, supports long and short positions (receive vs. pay), The position can be unwound quickly on-demand
Cons: swap spreads risk exposure if the investor wants to hedge instruments correlated with part of the Treasury curve. It can be a bit unwieldy to transact under volatile market conditions (many investors prefer to call the dealer by voice to establish the positions – something that takes precious time when market is moving, but unwinding is easy)
IRS beats Treasury futures and nominal Treasuries by allowing institutional investors to target a very specific part of the yield curve (or in forward space such as 3y5y or 10y10y). Unlike nominal Treasuries, swap positions can be both long and short, and it is balance sheet friendly (no initial cash transactions). Not having to micro-manage the futures roll can free up resource to focus on other market events. Once established, it is also easy to unwind. Generally, many mutual fund companies prefer to establish interest rates exposure via derivatives.
Next article11 26 2015 | by Victor Xing | Other