08 26 2019 | by Victor Xing | Economics
All articles 199
07 12 2019 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
Kekselias portfolio one-year return: 51.5%
02 27 2019 | by Victor Xing | Economics
Common catalyst for progressive and conservative populism
12 09 2018 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
Kekselias performance review: 1.31% YTD total return
10 14 2018 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
Roundabout path in the snap-back of long-term bond yields
09 23 2018 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
Calm before the storm as quantitative tightening looms
05 20 2018 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
Alternative narrative on the natural rate of interest
01 07 2018 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
Flatter yield curve a symptom of ineffective tightening
12 04 2017 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
Bond market term premium and wolves of Yellowstone
10 17 2017 | by Victor Xing | Capital Markets
How we learned to stop worrying and love the “fake markets”
01 08 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
Dec 2015 Payrolls: strong hiring vs. soft wage growth
Summary of the Dec 2015 Payrolls
- Good: strong headline job gains at 292,000 vs. 200,000 consensus and 252,000 prior (revised up from 211,000)
- Good: headline labor force participation rate rose a touch to 62.6 vs. 62.5 prior, prime age (25 to 54 years) participation rate also improved at 80.9 vs. 80.8 prior
- Good: part-time workers for economic reasons edged lower
- Good: U-3 unemployment rate unchanged at 5.0%, U-6 unemployment rate unchanged at 9.9% (unchanged unemployment rate amid higher participation rate is positive)
- Not so good: average hourly earnings (wage inflation) at 2.5% YoY vs. 2.7% consensus and 2.3% prior
- Not so good: long-term unemployed as a percentage of total unemployed rose to 26.3% vs. 25.7% prior
Breaking down the job gains and job losses, with a few surprises
Individual components
Both the U-3 and broader U-6 unemployment rates remain unchanged at 5.0% and 9.9%, respectively, and part-time workers for economic reasons (involuntary part-time workers) dipped slightly following prior month’s rise
Average hourly earnings came in at 2.52% YoY (vs. 2.7% market expectations) and -0.04% MoM (vs. 0.0% consensus)
Headline and prime age participation rate rose to 62.6% and 80.9%, respectively
Next article01 06 2016 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks