02 17 2017 | by Victor Xing | Economics
01 11 2017 | by Victor Xing | Economics
Financial risk contagion: China’s capital outflow
12 22 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
November PCE: dollar strength weighed on goods inflation
12 14 2016 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
A less-hawkish interpretation of the December FOMC
12 02 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
November Payrolls and Governor Powell on risk management
11 15 2016 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
November FOMC minutes and debates behind guidance change
11 04 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
October Payrolls: decent data with stronger wage growth
11 02 2016 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks
November FOMC: forward guidance and the return of “some”
11 01 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
September PCE: goods and energy inflation lead the index
10 07 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
September Payrolls: signs of tighter labor market slack
02 05 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics
雖然一月總體招聘偏低，但是報告的細節比前期有改善。月薪俸增長達到0.47%，高於市場預計的0.0%，年工資增長達2.54%。同時，勞動人口參與率持續走高，因經濟原因的兼職率重新回落(這是 Chair Yellen 和 President Dudley 關注的重點數據)。儘管勞動人口參與率有所上升，U3失業率還是回落到4.9%(低於市場預計的5.0%)，U6保持在9.9%。如果原油與進口貨物價格可以持續回升，薪俸增長和服務行業通脹有可能帶來初期的滯脹。美聯儲局會繼續關注價格走勢包括薪俸增長率。市場根據今日的數據將2016年的加息可能性上調到0.8次(從週三的低於0.5次)
- U3失業率(civilian unemployment rate) 在4.9%，低於上月的5.0%
- U6失業率(broader unemployment rate) 在9.9%，與上月持平
- 因經濟原因的兼職率 (part-time for economic reasons)下降到3.78%，低於上月的3.82%
- 月平均時薪(average hourly earnings)達到0.47%，高於市場預測0.0%
長期(27週以上)失業人士比率比上月有上升，在26.9％ vs. 26.3％
Retail trade added 58,000 jobs in January, following essentially no change in December. Employment rose in general merchandise stores (+15,000), electronics and appliance stores (+9,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000), and furniture and home furnishing stores (+7,000). Employment in retail trade has increased by 301,000 over the past 12 months, with motor vehicle and parts dealers and general merchandise stores accounting for nearly half of the gain.
Employment in food services and drinking places rose in January (+47,000). Over the year, the industry has added 384,000 jobs.
Health care continued to add jobs in January (+37,000), with most of the increase occurring in hospitals (+24,000). Health care has added 470,000 jobs over the past 12 months, with about two-fifths of the growth occurring in hospitals.
Manufacturing added 29,000 jobs in January, following little employment change in 2015. Over the month, job gains occurred in food manufacturing (+11,000), fabricated metal products (+7,000), and furniture and related products (+3,000).
Employment in financial activities rose in January (+18,000). Job gains occurred in credit intermediation and related activities (+7,000).
Private educational services lost 39,000 jobs in January due to larger than normal seasonal layoffs.
Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 20,000 in January.
Most of the loss occurred among couriers and messengers (-14,000), reflecting larger than usual layoffs following strong seasonal hiring in the prior 2 months.
Employment in mining continued to decline in January (-7,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014, employment in the industry has fallen by 146,000, or 17 percent.
Employment in professional and business services changed little in January (+9,000), after increasing by 60,000 in December. Within the industry, professional and technical services added 25,000 jobs over the month, in line with average monthly gains over the prior 12 months. Employment in temporary help services edged down in January (-25,000), after edging up by the same amount in December.
Employment in other major industries, including construction, wholesale trade, and government, changed little over the month.
Next article02 05 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics