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02 05 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics

美國2016年一月就業報告:招聘降低,勞工市場“鬆弛”有所改善

美國2016年一月就業報告:招聘降低,勞工市場“鬆弛”有所改善

依據美國勞工部報告,一月非農招聘上升15.1萬人,少於市場預計的18.8萬。最新資料低於十一月的28萬(從25.2萬修改為28萬)以及十二月的26.2萬(從29.2萬修改為26.2萬),兩月修改共計減少2千。

雖然一月總體招聘偏低,但是報告的細節比前期有改善。月薪俸增長達到0.47%,高於市場預計的0.0%,年工資增長達2.54%。同時,勞動人口參與率持續走高,因經濟原因的兼職率重新回落(這是 Chair Yellen 和 President Dudley 關注的重點數據)。儘管勞動人口參與率有所上升,U3失業率還是回落到4.9%(低於市場預計的5.0%),U6保持在9.9%。如果原油與進口貨物價格可以持續回升,薪俸增長和服務行業通脹有可能帶來初期的滯脹。美聯儲局會繼續關注價格走勢包括薪俸增長率。市場根據今日的數據將2016年的加息可能性上調到0.8次(從週三的低於0.5次)

詳細分析:

  • U3失業率(civilian unemployment rate) 在4.9%,低於上月的5.0%
  • U6失業率(broader unemployment rate) 在9.9%,與上月持平
  • 因經濟原因的兼職率 (part-time for economic reasons)下降到3.78%,低於上月的3.82%
就業報告
U3失業率(civilian unemployment rate) ,U6失業率(broader unemployment rate) ,因經濟原因的兼職率 (part-time for economic reasons)

勞動人口參與率包括兩組數據:總體與25-54歲群體:

  • 總體勞動人口參與率在62.7%,高於上月的62.6%
  • 25-54歲群體勞動人口參與率在81.1%,高於上月的80.9%

勞動人口參與率的上升意味著更多勞工從進入市場開始尋找工作機會,但這會在短期內提高失業率。因此,一月的失業率下降是好的跡象。

就業報告
總體勞動人口參與率,25-54歲群體勞動人口參與率

勞動人口參與率長期趨勢:

就業報告

市场密切關注的薪俸增長数据高于預測:

  • 月平均時薪(average hourly earnings)達到0.47%,高於市場預測0.0%
  • 年平均時薪達到2.54%,低於上月的2.68%

就業報告

長期(27週以上)失業人士比率比上月有上升,在26.9% vs. 26.3%

就業報告

關於不同作業類型就業情況的進一步分析

勞工統計局表示,儘管在美金強勢的環境下,製造業在一月出乎市場意料的增加招聘。但礦業(包括能源開採)在原油價格滑落的影響下繼續裁員。同時,醫療和餐飲業繼續保持就業增長。

勞工統計局報告:

Retail trade added 58,000 jobs in January, following essentially no change in December. Employment rose in general merchandise stores (+15,000), electronics and appliance stores (+9,000), motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000), and furniture and home furnishing stores (+7,000). Employment in retail trade has increased by 301,000 over the past 12 months, with motor vehicle and parts dealers and general merchandise stores accounting for nearly half of the gain.

Employment in food services and drinking places rose in January (+47,000). Over the year, the industry has added 384,000 jobs.

Health care continued to add jobs in January (+37,000), with most of the increase occurring in hospitals (+24,000). Health care has added 470,000 jobs over the past 12 months, with about two-fifths of the growth occurring in hospitals.

Manufacturing added 29,000 jobs in January, following little employment change in 2015. Over the month, job gains occurred in food manufacturing (+11,000), fabricated metal products (+7,000), and furniture and related products (+3,000).

Employment in financial activities rose in January (+18,000). Job gains occurred in credit intermediation and related activities (+7,000).

Private educational services lost 39,000 jobs in January due to larger than normal seasonal layoffs.

Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 20,000 in January.

Most of the loss occurred among couriers and messengers (-14,000), reflecting larger than usual layoffs following strong seasonal hiring in the prior 2 months.

Employment in mining continued to decline in January (-7,000). Since reaching a peak in September 2014, employment in the industry has fallen by 146,000, or 17 percent.

Employment in professional and business services changed little in January (+9,000), after increasing by 60,000 in December. Within the industry, professional and technical services added 25,000 jobs over the month, in line with average monthly gains over the prior 12 months. Employment in temporary help services edged down in January (-25,000), after edging up by the same amount in December.

Employment in other major industries, including construction, wholesale trade, and government, changed little over the month.

Next article02 05 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics

January NFP: tighter labor market slack vs. slower hiring