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02 09 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics

十二月職位空缺和勞動力流動調查: 勞工市場有緊縮的跡象

美國十二月職位空缺和勞動力流動調查 (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) 再度顯示在2015年末勞工市場緊縮的跡象:

  • 職位空缺率從3.6%上調至3.8%
  • 辭職率從2.0%上調至2.1%
  • 聘請率保持在3.7%
職位空缺和勞動力流動調查
U6失業率, 職位空缺率, 辭職率, 聘請率

特別值得欣慰的是辭職率的提高, 因為它代表勞工界對就業與創業的樂觀態度.  但是近期數據也突出了製造業(因美元強勢)和能源生產業(因原油价格下滑)的疲軟.  主要行業辭職率如下:

  • 較高薪的專業和商業服務業從2.6%上調至2.7%
  • 零售業從3.0%上調至3.3%
  • 貿易,運輸和公用事業(水電) 從2.3%上調至2.6%
  • 建構業從2.0%上調至2.2%
  • 製造業從1.2%下降至1.0%
  • 能源生產業從1.9%下降至1.7%
職位空缺和勞動力流動調查
主要行業辭職率

職位空缺和勞動力流動調查數據的重要性

聯儲局主席 Yellen 認為職位空缺和勞動力流動調查數據可以幫助判斷勞工市場“鬆弛”是否有所改善:

Other indicators also generally corroborate the view that while the labor market has improved, it still has not fully recovered. For example, the rate at which employees quit their jobs for other opportunities has tended to go up in a strong economy, since more workers voluntarily leave their jobs when they have greater confidence about their ability to find new ones and when firms are competing more actively for new hires. Indeed, the quits rate has picked up as the labor market has improved over the past few years, but it still is not as high as it was through much of the early 2000s. Another important indicator is the number of available positions, or job openings, that employers currently have posted. Job openings have increased significantly over the past year and a half, and, in another encouraging sign, the pace of hiring has also stepped up in the past year or so, though it too continues to run somewhat below the levels that prevailed through the middle part of the last decade.

值得一提的是JOLTS數據的及時性.  比起其他的Tier1數據, JOLTS數據的發表是遲2個月.  如業內人士需要知道2016年一月的市場波動是否影響自願離職率與勞工市場狀況, 勞工統計局會在三月初公佈此數據.

Next article02 09 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics

December JOLTS: further tightening of labor market slack