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04 05 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics

Data recap: March ISM and February JOLTS

March ISM

March ISM manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing NMI staged a rebound following prior months’ soft readings.  The manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 vs. 49.5 prior and 50.5 consensus, with readings above 50 signal an expansion.  ISM NMI printed 54.5 vs. 54.0 expectations and 53.4 prior.  One notable rise is the prices component from both of the indices, and the 6.8 point increase in manufacturing orders was likely due to a boost from a weaker dollar following the dovish surprise at the March FOMC.

Manufacturing sector

March ISM manufacturing saw significant improvements with the exception of employment:

  • Headline index at 51.8 vs. 50.5 consensus and 49.5 prior
  • New orders at 58.3 vs. 51.5 prior
  • New export orders at 52.0 vs. 46.5 prior
  • Prices at 51.5 vs. 38.5 prior
  • Employment at 48.1 vs. 48.5 prior
March ISM
March ISM manufacturing beat expectations
March ISM
March ISM manufacturing received a boost from the dollar weakness

Services sector

ISM non-manufacturing index edged up across major sub-components:

  • Headline non-manufacturing NMI at 54.5 vs. 54.0 consensus and 53.4 prior
  • Business activity index at 59.8 vs. 57.8 prior
  • New orders at 56.7 vs. 55.5 prior
  • Prices at 49.1 vs. 45.5 prior
  • Employment at 50.3 vs. 49.7 prior
March ISM
ISM Non-manufacturing rose vs. February

February JOLTS

Despite optical improvements in the hire rate and quit rate, the February JOLTS was largely a non-event.  The rise in hire rate to 3.8% offset the January decline, and the rise in quit rate to 2.1% from 2.0% is still below December’s 2.2%

March ISM
February JOLTS saw a decline in job vacancy rate, but hire rate and quit rate both rose (to offset January’s decline)

Next article04 01 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics

March Payrolls: higher participation and wage growth