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06 29 2016 | by Victor Xing | Economics

May PCE: services strength amid softer goods inflation


May PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) softened following brisk gains in April.  Durable goods and energy goods did not maintain their recent strength, but services inflation sustained its uptrend.  Bloomberg terminal reported a rounded 0.2% MoM gain in headline PCE, which was on-consensus with economist surveys, but the unrounded figure was 0.167% MoM.  Core PCE came in at 0.162% (rounded 0.2%) vs. 0.2% consensus.

Nevertheless, the data release came in amid stronger than expected reading in Personal Spending as well as Oracle’s $14 billion new issue announcement, and market reaction on this data alone was drown out by concurrent headlines.

May PCE, month-over-month change:

  • Headline PCE at 0.167% MoM vs. 0.2% consensus and 0.307% prior
  • Core PCE at 0.162% MoM vs. 0.2% survey and 0.171% prior
  • Services at 0.266% MoM vs. 0.216% prior
  • Durable goods at -0.269% MoM vs. 0.07% prior
  • Goods at -0.04% MoM vs. 0.498% prior
  • Energy goods and services at 1.416% MoM vs. 3.806% prior
May PCE – softer headline and core readings as goods inflation decline

May PCE, year-over-year change:

  • Headline PCE at 0.926% MoM vs. 1.065% prior
  • Core PCE at 1.618% MoM vs. 1.575% prior
  • Services at 2.243% MoM vs. 2.123% prior
  • Durable goods at -1.685% MoM vs. -1.584% prior
  • Goods at -1.792% MoM vs. -1.131% prior
  • Energy goods and services at -10.945% MoM vs. -8.083% prior
May PCE: year-over-year changes


Next article06 21 2016 | by Victor Xing | Central Banks

Yellen’s Humphrey Hawkins: cautious policy, reiterated